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Modeling Uncertainty and Risk

Credential Earned: 

Course Focus

Rarely does a single factor alone predict an outcome, which is why decision making is never as simple as we would like it to be. In a competitive business environment, not taking this uncertainty into account has serious costs. In this course, you will use foundations in probability to describe risk mathematically and incorporate those calculations into your decisions so you can take them to the next level. Working through increasingly complex modeling situations, you will learn to use estimates of probable future outcomes for Go/No-Go decisions and to run a Monte Carlo simulation allowing you to examine outcomes that vary based on multiple, interdependent decisions.

Who Should Take this Course?

This course is appropriate for anyone from analyst to SVP-level who is looking for a deeper understanding of how to perform the statistical analyses that support key business decisions. Course content draws on examples across all business types.

Topics Include

  • Calculating marginal value for a binary decision

  • Determining optimal values for a repeating, sequential decision

  • Building risk aversion into your model

  • Calculating utility for a given decision

  • Developing and using a Monte Carlo simulation

  • Performing sensitivity analysis

  • Using expected utility to accommodate risk


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